A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
