Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
